Bowls, Playoffs, etc.

[ofred]

Virginia's game with Duke was disappointing. The Virginia OC never adjusted to Duke putting 7 in the box and denying the run. Until late in the game. And then we could see that Duke's DBs couldn't cover shit. Or they got penalized. Anyways, I don't know how much I'll post on the bowls. With late opt outs, coaching changes and such, I might just post within hours of the game or a half day before. The playoffs are a little more predictable. Pretty crappy season, but not a big chunk of the bankroll.
YTD: Large 56-58 (too many plays) Small 67-53 (some relief from the vig of the large plays)

 

[LonghornMM]

Always appreciate your insight, Fred.

 

[Serbone]

Non playoff bowl games: NFL opt outs, transfer portal opt outs, lame duck HC, OC, DC, and some are announced at the last minute. It is ridiculous.

 

[ofred]

Non playoff bowl games: NFL opt outs, transfer portal opt outs, lame duck HC, OC, DC, and some are announced at the last minute. It is ridiculous.

Agree. For those games, going to look at late line movement. Will play those on the assumption that line movement at some of the large books might signify that whales know more than the public does, and the books will adjust accordingly.

 

[ofred]

For example, Montana State has gone from -11.5 to 14. Small play:

Montana St. -14

Also small:

Army/ Navy- under 38 A safe bet since the majority of their games in the last 10 plus years have gone under this number. Not last year. Usually the game is close, meaning that FGs will have some importance. Nothing better for these academy game unders than a long time-sucking drive ending with a FG, a missed FG or a non-conversion on 4th down. Weather won't be a factor, but it is on grass.

 

[indiana]

Fred.......BOL with your Fri. play buddy.....
here's to a profitable weekend....
have a Bowl Season of winners.....indy

 

[ofred]

Still undecided on LA Bowl, which is defunct after this year.

Semi-large:

Tarleton State -12.5 (-119) Villanova's conference, the CAA, has lost most of its better teams to the FBS over the last 5 years or so. And Villanova only had 235 yards of offense last week vs. Lehigh and won mostly due to TOs. In ranking the conferences, Tarleton's UAC is right below MVAC and the Big Sky. Tarleton at home, with lots of offensive weapons, good at running and passing the ball. Tarleton beat Army, lost to ACU by 3, and I think more impressive, really hammered North Dakota last week. ND had some very tight losses with K State, SD State and ND State...all games within reach of a win. Hard to evaluate Villanova's offensive stats since they had so many crappy conference opponents. Just think Nova will have a hard time keeping up scoring-wise.

 

[G-Man!]

BOL through the Bowl season OFred!

 

[arniesarmy]

Ofred, I've followed many of your picks through the years. You put the work in. I don't have the work ethic to study all the games and it is difficult to predict what a group of humans will do against another group. Anyway, keep up the work you do and with the college setup the way it is, it's difficult to predict early-season games because all teams go through so many offseason changes now and late-season bowl games for the same reason. Hope we all have a successful last month of college football.

 

[ofred]

The small plays hit, and posted the Tarleton pick so near to kickoff hope no one took that dog of a play.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Jacksonville St/ Troy- under 24.5 1H (-123) Teams will be a little rusty. Goose Crowder will play, but his OL is a mess. 57 sacks given up.Crowder's mobility already not great before the injury. Also Troy's top RB out. Jax. St. runs the ball about 2 to 1 to passes, but Troy's defense can handle it. Neither team has much big play potential.

 

[indiana]

Fred......nice call (Un. FH) buddy....
thank you......indy

 

[ofred]

Small:

ODU +4.5 (-111) Even though this line is moving towards USF getting the late action, I think ODU gives them a game and gets the upset. USF also missing a few D guys along with Byrum Brown. The ODU run game looks really good, and if they can avoid too many TOs, they will monopolize the ball at times. USF's hurry up offense could give ODU trouble, but without Brown and most of the offensive coaches, will it be as efficient? I think USF is the more disappointed team and with Golesh and staff gone, will they be focused or thinking about their portal moves?

Delaware +1.5 Delaware will be motivated here, first season at the FBS level. ULL lost a lot of talent and bodies in last year's portal/ graduation, while Delaware added some pretty good talent. ULL QB Lunch Winfield will play, but his passing abilities are questionable. ULL and Delaware both played many close games so expect that here. Delaware coach Ryan Carty might have the edge in prepping and play calling.

 

[ofred]

Delaware has 1 long run, 2 turnovers, and some bend not break defense...but man their offense is bad so far. Lucky to be up 4.

 

[lakrfan2000]

Small:

ODU +4.5 (-111) Even though this line is moving towards USF getting the late action, I think ODU gives them a game and gets the upset. USF also missing a few D guys along with Byrum Brown. The ODU run game looks really good, and if they can avoid too many TOs, they will monopolize the ball at times. USF's hurry up offense could give ODU trouble, but without Brown and most of the offensive coaches, will it be as efficient? I think USF is the more disappointed team and with Golesh and staff gone, will they be focused or thinking about their portal moves?

Delaware +1.5 Delaware will be motivated here, first season at the FBS level. ULL lost a lot of talent and bodies in last year's portal/ graduation, while Delaware added some pretty good talent. ULL QB Lunch Winfield will play, but his passing abilities are questionable. ULL and Delaware both played many close games so expect that here. Delaware coach Ryan Carty might have the edge in prepping and play calling.

Nice hit on both!

 

[ofred]

Delaware game was a trip.

Large:

Oregon -20 (-120) Before all of this NIL and portal craziness, G5 teams like JMU could compete better against the ranked teams. But did you notice that this season there were no upsets of top ranked teams by a G5 teams? In fact, even among the almost playoff teams like Notre Dame, USC, Utah, BYU, etc. there were almost no close games with G5 teams. The disparity is widening and this season it really was glaring. Tulane beat Duke, Memphis over Arkansas, early season, but those don't quite fit the matchup we see here with Oregon and JMU. And it's playoff football. You saw what Washington did to Boise.

When we last saw Oregon in the playoffs, it was getting hammered by Ohio State and it was over by halftime (or sooner). I think that plays into the Ducks being ready from second one in this game. They are also likely going to get back some of their injured receivers and OL after 3 weeks off. But their depth is good enough almost without the added help. It's in Autzen and it'll be tough on the JMU offense and a spectacle that the JMU hasn't been part of yet. Lots of credit to Bob Chesney for rebuilding this team after Cignetti left. He's a great coach, but has already signed on with UCLA for next year. His players HAVE to be thinking of their next move too.

The JMU QB Alonza Barnett is dangerous running the ball, and will take off when plays break down and make some nice gains. Hoping Oregon puts a spy on him. His receivers aren't all that good, and Barnett throws his passes with little touch...more like lasers. So I think Oregon can afford an extra guy spying on him. Barnett had some awful games this season too, Louisville being a good example. Oregon has a great coaching staff, and their run game is really a major strength. Makhi Hughes, the leading rusher from 2024 in the AAC, couldn't even break into the top 3 and has redshirted (another example of the G5/ P4 disparity). Dante Moore aint bad either. I also think Oregon's defense will pressure Barnett into sacks, mistakes, and possibly a turnover or 2. Lots of points and an early score by JMU makes that spread difficult to cover, but I think Oregon comes out ready from the get go.

Small:
Oregon -13 1H

 

[TheShotDoctor]

On OREGON HUGE....5500

LOVE THE DUCKS Here!!

OREGON
44-13
AND I Feel They Are Up Comfortably @ The Half Aswell!!

All The Best
-ShotDoc-

 

[secondcity]

I've been on the ducks since early this week.

An additional consideration: this is a rare cross country flight and game for JMU. They are almost entirely a regional team. I know these are young people and they aren't walking off the plane to the game, but it does have some effect on the legs. Also, its an 8:30 start time from JMU internal time clock, so all sorts of preparation that is different from their norm.